Steve’s Stat’s – January 2012
Posted on January 7, 2012 by JA/LEX Real Estate in Chambersburg homes for sale Chambersburg real estate Shippensburg real estate Shippensburg realtorsSTEVE’S STAT’S – DECEMBER 2012
Brought to you by: JALEX Real Estate Services
Number of Active Listings in the Shippensburg school district area (per MRIS MLS system): 146
Number of Homes Sold in the period (3 months): 33
Absorption rate = # of homes sold / period (3 months): 11
Month’s supply of homes = Total active listings / Absorption rate: 13.27
(6 is considered balanced market conditions, 6 is a seller’s market and above 6 is a buyer’s market)
Total homes sold on the past 30 days, Shippensburg school district: 10
Median sales price: $105,000
High sales price: $185,700
Low sales price: $35,900
Median days on the market for all sold homes in the past 30 days: 122
In the Shippensburg area real estate market activity slowed in the month of December as it usually does in December with thoughts turning to the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. The absorption rate for the Shippensburg area real estate market climbed in December to 13.27 which is as high as it had been in our market in the past two years. The increase in that rate is after it had dropped to as low as 9 throughout the fall. Remember, the absorption rate is a stat that tells us how many months that it should take to sell through currently active listed homes for sale inventory at the current rate of sales. The drastic increase in that rate compared to November’s stat’s has to be taken with a grain of salt though due to the normal slow down in the month of December. Going forward, that stat is really going to drop. I expect when you review next month’s number it will be back down in the 7 to 9 area and then perhaps continue to fall in upcoming month’s.
There are some reasons that this is happening. First, homes are selling. Personally, this January is the busiest that JALEX has seen with 12 transactions scheduled to settle this January in our Shippensburg real estate office. It also helps to have interest rates for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage as low as 3.75%. And buyers are able to purchase a home with no money down and practically none out of their pocket as long as the house that they are purchasing is in reasonable condition, safe and will appraise for the sales price. Another reason that the absorption rate has fallen and will continue in the short term is that there are less homes being made available for sale in the Shippensburg area. As is normally the case, sellers usually wait till Spring to sell their houses. In my judgement, that is going to be a mistake this year! I will explain why a little further on. Just as now is a very favorable time to purchase with the rates being as low as they are, it is also a very favorable time to have a home on the market for sale as long as it is priced right. Any member of our Shippensburg or Chambersburg real estate team can provide you with the information you need to determine what the right proce range is for you real estate listing. So higher buyer demand coupled with lower available inventory has and will continue to result in a lower absorprion rate.
Now, why should you have your house on the market for sale now rather than waiting till Spring? There are a couple of reasons, first, supply and demand is key in real estate. If there is high demand and low supply then your commodity, whether it be a home for sale, coffee beans, gasoline or orange juice, will sell for a higher price. Right now demand is higher than at any time in the past few years as interest rates have fallen to 3.75%! There is also a significant number of people relocating to the Shippensburg area. If your Shippensburg or Chambersburg area home is priced fairly for the market then you certainly have buyers who will take a look. With that comes the temptation to price your house a little higher since the demand is higher than it has been. I understand that and would agree with that ideology. However, that would be a big mistake in this market and let me tell you why, which is the second reason that now is the time to have your home on the market for sale. Shadow inventory is about to be released onto the market at a much higher rate than at any time before. Shadow inventory is those homes that are foreclosed, or short sales. In particular foreclosed homes. In other areas of the country markets in areas such as Nevada, California, Florida, Michigan saw those homes hit the market in big numbers as banks sold through them more aggressively than in our area. The governement halted the release of these types of sales to a degree throughout the east coast. Remember all the talk and media coverage regarding the “robo signing”. So, the distressed properties were not released on the market like other areas like mentioned above. Those areas sold through their inventory and those areas are now showing appreciation in home values as there has been recovery. Guess what folks, the plug is about to be loosened a bit more on the Dam. That Dam has been holding back that inventory and it is about to hit our market and be made available for sale at very aggressive prices. That will have an effect on home values and the increase in demand will be met with an increase in inventory that is proced below market value. If you need to sell, you need to be on the market NOW and priced to sell. Raising the price will prove to be a mistake.
Overall, sales are up over the same perod last year and over the same period two years ago. We are coming back. Demand is out there. JALEX just had it’s best year since opening and we have proven our strength and skill as Shippensburg most innovative and market leading real estate sales and services provider. As we move into 2012 our goal is to further build on our achievements thus far. We plan on opening an office in Chambersburg early in 2012. And we are looking for real estate agents who care about people and love to sell real estate. If we can help you in any way or provide you with any information please feel free to give us a call. And if you already have your house for sale or if you are working with someone else and you just want to ask someone questions who knows what is happening with real estate then give me a call and i’ll be happy to chat!
Steve Coover
Associate Broker, Owner
JALEX Real Estate Services
717-477-9326 Office
